Canadian Consumer Confidence & Consumer Spending Trends — Early 2026

# Canadian Consumer Confidence & Consumer Spending Trends — Early 2026

Executive Summary

Canada's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 47.50 in February 2026, remaining in negative territory. Economic uncertainty driven by elevated inflation and U.S. trade tensions continues to weigh on sentiment; however, retail sales rose 1.1% in January and an estimated 0.9% in February (advance estimate), signaling a gradual recovery in actual consumer spending. Full-year 2026 consumer spending is projected at $1,479.1B (real growth of +1.3%).

Detail

Consumer Confidence Index Trend

February 2026: Consumer Confidence 47.50 (down from 49.30 the prior month) ([Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/consumer-confidence))

Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index: approximately 50 (below the long-term average of 54.87)

Long-term average since 2008: 54.87 ([Nanos Research](https://nanos.co/canadian-consumer-confidence-continues-to-improve-hits-highest-level-since-november-2024-bloomberg-nanos/))

Economic outlook perceptions have retreated to summer 2025 levels ([Leger](https://leger360.com/in-the-news-consumer-confidence-canada-economic-caution-persists-in-2026/))

Consumer Spending Data

Retail Sales — January: +1.1%

Retail Sales — February (advance estimate): +0.9% ([BNN Bloomberg](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/03/20/the-daily-chase-consumer-spending-rises-to-start-the-year/))

2026 Consumer Spending Forecast: $1,479.1B (real growth of +1.3%) ([IBISWorld](https://www.ibisworld.com/canada/bed/consumer-spending/23/))

Holiday season over-budget spending: 31% of consumers (down from 34% the prior year) → increasing spending caution

RBC Consumer Spending Tracker

December RBC Core Retail Sales: 3-month average +0.7% ([RBC Economics](https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/canadian-analysis/featured-analysis/insights/rbc-consumer-spending-tracker/))

Discretionary goods spending: 3-month average accelerating to +1.7%

Discretionary services and essential goods: minimal change over the 3-month period

January slowdown: most pronounced in high-population provinces including Ontario, B.C., and Quebec

Bank of Canada Consumer Expectations Survey

The Q4 2025 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations ([BoC Survey](https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/01/canadian-survey-of-consumer-expectations-fourth-quarter-of-2025/)) was published in January 2026.

Factors Supporting Spending Resilience (RBC Analysis)

RBC Economics has identified five reasons why Canadian consumer spending is expected to remain resilient, which would limit the scope for further Bank of Canada rate cuts ([RBC Five Reasons](https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/canadian-analysis/featured-analysis/insights/five-reasons-canadian-consumer-spending-will-stay-resilient-preventing-further-boc-rate-cuts/)).

Key Figures

Consumer Confidence Index (Feb 2026): 47.50 (prev. 49.30)

Bloomberg Nanos Index: ~50 (long-term avg. 54.87)

Retail Sales Growth (January): +1.1%

Retail Sales Growth (February, advance estimate): +0.9%

2026 Consumer Spending Forecast: $1,479.1B (real growth +1.3%)

RBC Core Retail Sales (December): +0.7% (3M avg)

Discretionary Goods Spending (December): +1.7% (3M avg)

Holiday Over-Budget Spending Rate: 31% (prev. year 34%)

Rise Partners Implications

A notable confidence-spending divergence is emerging: consumer confidence remains in negative territory (47.50) even as actual spending continues to grow. This pattern suggests that essential goods and services are sustaining expenditure levels. Korean companies entering the Canadian market would be well-positioned to prioritize essential consumer goods and services categories.

The acceleration in discretionary goods spending (+1.7%) is an encouraging signal, but significant regional variation warrants differentiated go-to-market strategies — distinguishing between major urban markets such as Ontario and B.C. and smaller regional markets.

RBC's analysis indicating that spending resilience may limit further Bank of Canada rate cuts suggests that the Canadian interest rate environment is likely to stabilize near current levels. Korean companies should factor this into their Canadian financing and capital planning.

--- Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/consumer-confidence